What Is the Retail Economic Outlook for APAC?

Understanding APAC's Retail Economic Outlook

If 2023 was the year of the resilient consumer, 2024 will be the year of the empowered consumer. This shift is underscored by diverse regional economic dynamics across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. David Mann, Chief Economist at Mastercard, Asia Pacific, provided a comprehensive analysis during the NRF event in Singapore, offering valuable insights into the current economic landscape and future trends.

Key Economic Trends and Consumer Behavior

Global Economic Upswings and Downturns

Mann describes the global economy's recent fluctuations as a "bungee jump," with drastic drops and subsequent rebounds. The unprecedented collapse in GDP growth due to the pandemic and the rapid recovery as economies reopened is likened to the disorienting nature of a bungee jump. This analogy highlights how countries like the U.S., Australia, and Singapore experienced severe economic contractions followed by significant recoveries. However, the recovery has been uneven, with central banks and forecasters struggling to regain orientation amid persistent inflation and fluctuating interest rates.

Resilience and Shifting Spending Habits

Consumer spending behavior has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability. The pandemic-induced pent-up demand led to a surge in spending once restrictions eased. However, inflation and rising costs of living have influenced spending patterns. For instance, food inflation outpaced overall inflation, with countries like Singapore experiencing a 7.5% rise, Australia 8.2%, and the UK over 20% in food prices. This has caused consumers to adjust their spending, prioritizing essentials over discretionary items.

Interest Rates and Consumer Power

Interest rates have been a pivotal factor in economic recovery. Advanced economies, such as the U.S. and Australia, have witnessed unprecedented swings in interest rates, impacting funding costs and consumer spending power. As inflation begins to ease, lower interest rates are expected to boost discretionary spending. For example, Australia's easing interest rates are anticipated to support retail sales growth over the next 18 months.

Regional Variations and E-commerce Challenges

Currency Fluctuations and Travel Spending

The APAC region presents a diverse economic landscape with varying impacts on consumer behavior. For instance, the strong performance of the Singapore dollar contrasts with the weaker Japanese yen, influencing travel and spending patterns. Singaporeans traveling to Japan now spend a larger share of their wallet on dining, driven by favorable exchange rates.

The Rise of Online Returns

The rise of e-commerce has brought about increased rates of returns, particularly in markets with high online retail penetration. In the UK, for example, women's apparel has seen significant return rates, adding hidden costs for merchants. This trend underscores the competitive nature of e-commerce and the challenges of managing returns.

India's Growing Economic Influence

India's economic growth stands out as a significant contributor to global growth. With a rising middle class and increasing discretionary spending power, India is poised to become a major driver of economic activity in the APAC region. By 2030, India's contribution to global growth is projected to reach 11%, highlighting its growing importance on the global stage.

The Future of Retail in APAC

The APAC region's retail sector is set for a dynamic future, driven by empowered consumers and diverse economic conditions. As interest rates stabilise and inflation eases, discretionary spending is expected to rise, supported by strong economic growth in key markets like India. Retailers must navigate these complexities and leverage regional strengths to capitalise on emerging opportunities.